Nobody asked me, but … (#16)
Today’s forecast includes a 30% chance of rain. But that means a 70% chance of no rain. Temperatures are climbing, and soon the mid-90’s will be daily occurrences. And we’re three days away from the official start of the hurricane season. All of that encouraged yet another bicycle commute this morning. Pete has joined the trend, and even Jeff came in by pedal-power two-wheeler earlier this week. It’s amazing what the impact can be of good weather, good examples, and record high gas prices. And so I wonder what other repercussions might be caused by that last factor …
An obvious result of $4/gal gasoline was reduced traffic on the highways this Memorial Day Weekend. I don’t know if that was the case all over the country, but it certainly seemed evident heading south from Jacksonville on Interstate 95. And it’s understandable that sales of motorcycles, scooters, and, yes, bicycles are probably all climbing. I wouldn’t mind a Vespa-type scooter, but with a short commute, the payback period would be infinite, so the only reasonable justification would be the fun factor.
Perhaps we will become more like our friends around the globe who use smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles. You rarely if ever see huge SUVs and monstrous pickup trucks in Europe or South America, and I have to believe that US sales of Honda Fits and Ford Focuses (Foci?) are going to rise, while those for Hummers and Escalades will fall. Of course, those individuals with lots of disposable income may continue to choose to dispose of it with flashy gas-guzzling cars, but that’s part of our society that isn’t likely to go away. I can’t imagine that the stadium parking lots used by professional athletes will be filled with Toyota Priuses any time soon.
That’s another trend that should parallel rising fuel prices - the percentage of hybrid or flex-fuel vehicles. Again, the payback has to be reasonable, but at some point, that will happen for many more individuals and for companies as well.
What about public transportation? Hitting the open road and going where we want to go, when we want to go there, is an ingrained part of the American culture, and outside of big cities, it’s probably unreasonable to expect significant numbers of commuters to leave their cars home and ride the bus (or train, if it’s available). Except for New York, Boston, and other large, old, mostly east-coast cities, we really don’t have reasonable public transportation in the US, and even if it became economically feasible to expand it, overcoming the individualism that is a hallmark of the American mindset might well be an insurmountable obstacle.
Another potential result of the increased cost of fuel could be the revitalization of the urban cores of many cities. Certainly, suburban sprawl has been fueled, if we can use that term, by the prevalence of automobiles, but as people look to reduce their commuting cost, wouldn’t it make sense to see a trend back toward city living? Jacksonville has seen some construction and design work in the downtown area, trying to promote increased residential use, but the necessary services - grocery stores, for example - haven’t materialized yet. Perhaps this will change, if living downtown becomes economically beneficial.
In the meantime, people adjust or they don’t. Some may find ways to cut their budgets in one area to offset higher transportation costs, others may just absorb it and keep doing what they’ve always done. I feel good about biking to work in the spring, not only from a gas-saving viewpoint, but also because I certainly need the exercise. But soon, I’ll be relying on the air-conditioned car again, burning fossil fuels instead of calories, and saving a few minutes while spending a few dollars. Does Vespa have an air-conditioned model?
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:17 am
Well, Al is right, biking in to work does have it’s benefits. Reduced fuel consumption, less air pollution, better health, etc. And genetics are on my side. Since my Grandfather was 100% Dutch and moved here from Den Haag in the early 1900’s it should be in my blood, right?
I have noticed a lot more people biking along my route to work in the past few weeks. Maybe it will catch on here. I know we have too many cars for the streets in our small part of Florida on most days.
Bikes and public transportation could help a lot if we could shift our cultural mindset, create a convenient transportation system, and move our families closer to the places we need to be on a daily basis. When I spent a few weeks in The Netherlands for business and looking up family I never felt inconvenienced by not having a car. I could always get to the places I wanted to be easily and relatively quickly. Maybe the rising fuel prices will help push that trend here. Not likely in the near future but you can always hope, do your part, and maybe others will follow your example.